Malawi Braces for Heavy Economic Impacts as Drought Threat Looms
At the core of anticipated economic woes lies agriculture, which accounts for 80% of employment and 25% of GDP according to the Malawi 2063 Policy Brief Series Vol 2 Nov'23.
LILONGWE, Malawi - As climate experts warn of dire conditions on the horizon, a new in-depth analysis outlines the extensive economic difficulties Malawi is likely to confront in the coming agricultural season due to impending drought driven by El Niño, writes Winston Mwale.
Researchers stress swift action is needed across many sectors to mitigate impacts.
Researchers from the National Planning Commission, Malawi-Liverpool Welcome Trust, Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, and University of Malawi have modeled various scenarios based on seasonal climate forecasts pointing to a strong El Niño pattern developing in late 2022 and persisting through mid-2024.
Their findings/analysis paint a sobering picture of the drought's potential impacts on GDP growth, agricultural production, inflation, employment, trade, and more.
Agriculture Faces Severe Downturn
At the core of anticipated economic woes lies agriculture, which accounts for 80% of employment and 25% of GDP according to the Malawi 2063 Policy Brief Series Vol 2 Nov'23.
Climate models project maize yields, the primary staple, could fall by up to 20% below normal levels due to reduced rainfall and moisture stress.
Other crops like sorghum, millet, beans and cassava may see diminished harvests as well. "Livelihoods of nearly 60% dependent on agriculture will be severely impacted," notes the analysis.
Cash crops fueling export revenues like tobacco, cotton and coffee are projected to see production declines.
The analysis estimates an overall 9-18% contraction in agricultural GDP compared to normal years.
"When the largest economic sector takes a hit of this magnitude, it pulls down the entire GDP," it states.
Models place total GDP declines at 4-8.6% under forecast drought conditions, presenting serious challenges.
Widespread Ripple Effects Across Economy
Reduced export volumes for crops are expected to curb vital foreign exchange earnings.
"This will squeeze imports and potentially cause currency depreciation," according to the analysis.
Soaring food prices of over 5% are also anticipated as drought dents domestic supplies.
"When incomes fall but food costs rise, demand drops for other goods and services."
Household consumption capacity is projected to decline 6-7% in worst-hit areas, dampening activity.
Employment levels may fall modestly as firms scale back amid weaker sales.
Prolonged dry conditions raise risks of bush fires damaging tourism landscapes and deterring visitors as well.
Public Health Emergency Possible
Water access challenges during drought heighten risks of waterborne disease outbreaks. Malnutrition may rise if food insecurity spreads due to crop failures and staple price hikes.
"Previous droughts saw spikes in diarrhea, malaria, respiratory infections," notes the analysis.
"Hospitals face increased burdens without preparations." Escalating disease burdens compound overall economic costs.
Fiscal Response Critical to Mitigate Impacts
Given projections, researchers stress proactive policy measures are urgently needed. Expanding social protection programs is identified as a priority to safeguard welfare.
Investing in irrigation, water harvesting and drought-resistant crops can also boost resilience for future seasons.
On the fiscal side, re-allocating resources to drought response may be necessary if conditions deteriorate beyond forecasts.
International Support Likely Required
While national coping capacities have strengthened, an severe drought may overwhelm local abilities.
"External support will almost certainly be needed to prevent humanitarian crisis," warns the analysis.
Food aid, health response and social program scaling up are flagged as areas partners could assist.
Early donor engagement on projected needs is advised to help secure timely flows.
Concerted Efforts Across Sectors Urgently Needed
As the analysis underscores extensive challenges, acting immediately on climate forecasts is key to help Malawi brace for anticipated drought blows.
Mobilizing efforts across sectors including meteorology, agriculture, water, health and nutrition is portrayed as essential.
With a strong El Niño forming, the window for preparedness and mitigation strategies is narrow - but the stakes for Malawi's economy and population could not be higher.
*Below is combined document of the series.
